Scramble Out of Bounds: Week 15 Playoff Scenarios

Just a quicky this week: the full list of elimination scenarios for Week 15.  I’ll be honest, I had most of this written Sunday evening assuming a New England win over Miami, and had to re-add quite a few first-round bye results.

If I had to bet, I’d say that Cincinnati, NY Jets, Green Bay and Arizona will all be eliminated this week, and that Detroit and Dallas will hold on.   I’d say Pittsburgh and Philadelphia both lock down first-round byes, but home field advantage remains an open question headed into Week 16.  Minnesota will clinch the NFC North, Jacksonville will clinch a top-five seed…and New England and LA Rams will both have to wait another week before officially punching their playoff cards.

ELIMINATION

• Cincinnati can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Minnesota d. Cincinnati

• Jacksonville can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Houston d. Jacksonville AND Pittsburgh d. New England

• Tennessee can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF New England d. Pittsburgh

• New England can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Pittsburgh d. New England

• Buffalo can be eliminated from the AFC East IF Miami d. Buffalo OR New England d. Pittsburgh

• Miami can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Buffalo d. Miami AND Houston d. San Francisco

• NY Jets can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF New Orleans d. NY Jets OR Tennessee d. San Francisco
• NY Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs IF New Orleans d. NY Jets

• Kansas City can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF LA Chargers d. Kansas City OR New England d. Pittsburgh
• Kansas City can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF LA Chargers d. Kansas City

• LA Chargers can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Kansas City d. LA Chargers OR Jacksonville d. Houston OR Miami d. Buffalo OR New England d. Pittsburgh
• LA Chargers can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF Kansas City d. LA Chargers OR Jacksonville d. Houston AND EITHER Miami d. Buffalo OR New England d. Pittsburgh

• Oakland can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Dallas d. Oakland OR Jacksonville d. Houston OR Tennessee d. San Francisco
• Oakland can be eliminated from the AFC West IF Dallas d. Oakland AND Kansas City d. LA Chargers
• Oakland can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Dallas d. Oakland AND Kansas City d. LA Chargers AND EITHER Baltimore d. Cleveland OR Tennessee d. San Francisco

• Minnesota can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Cincinnati d. Minnesota AND Philadelphia d. NY Giants

• Detroit can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Chicago d. Detroit OR Minnesota d. Cincinnati OR TWO OF Carolina d. Green Bay OR New Orleans d. NY Jets OR Atlanta d. Tampa Bay
• Detroit can be eliminated from the NFC North IF Chicago d. Detroit OR Minnesota d. Cincinnati
• Detroit can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Chicago d. Detroit
• Detroit can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Chicago d. Detroit AND Atlanta d. Tampa Bay AND Carolina d. Green Bay

• Green Bay can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Carolina d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Cincinnati OR BOTH New Orleans d. NY Jets AND Atlanta d. Tampa Bay
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the NFC North IF Carolina d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Cincinnati
• Green Bay can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Carolina d. Green Bay
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Carolina d. Green Bay AND Atlanta d. Tampa Bay

• New Orleans can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF EITHER Philadelphia d. NY Giants OR BOTH NY Jets d. New Orleans AND LA Rams d. Seattle
• New Orleans can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF NY Jets d. New Orleans AND Minnesota d. Cincinnati AND LA Rams d. Seattle

• Carolina can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Green Bay d. Carolina OR Philadelphia d. NY Giants

• Atlanta can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Tampa Bay d. Atlanta OR Philadelphia d. NY Giants
• Atlanta can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Tampa Bay d. Atlanta AND Minnesota d. Cincinnati

• Dallas can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Oakland d. Dallas AND EITHER Carolina d. Green Bay OR New Orleans d. NY Jets
• Dallas can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Oakland d. Dallas AND Atlanta d. Tampa Bay AND Carolina d. Green Bay AND New Orleans d. NY Jets AND Chicago d. Detroit

• LA Rams can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Seattle d. LA Rams OR Philadelphia d. NY Giants
• LA Rams can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Seattle d. LA Rams AND Minnesota d. Cincinnati

• Seattle can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF LA Rams d. Seattle OR Philadelphia d. NY Giants
• Seattle can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF LA Rams d. Seattle AND ONE OF Carolina d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Cincinnati OR New Orleans d. NY Jets
• Seattle can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF LA Rams d. Seattle AND TWO OF Carolina d. Green Bay OR New Orleans d. NY Jets OR Atlanta d. Tampa Bay

• Arizona can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Washington d. Arizona OR Seattle d. LA Rams OR BOTH Atlanta d. Tampa Bay AND Carolina d. Green Bay

CLINCHING

• Pittsburgh can clinch Home Field Advantage IF Pittsburgh d. New England AND Houston d. Jacksonville
• Pittsburgh can clinch a First-Round Bye IF Pittsburgh d. New England

• Jacksonville can clinch a Top-Five Seed IF Jacksonville d. Houston
• Jacksonville can clinch a playoff berth IF Jacksonville d. Houston OR Cleveland d. Baltimore AND EITHER Miami d. Buffalo OR LA Chargers and Kansas City DO NOT TIE

• New England can clinch a Top-Three Seed IF New England d. Pittsburgh OR BOTH LA Chargers d. Kansas City AND Miami d. Buffalo
• New England can clinch the AFC East IF New England d. Pittsburgh OR Miami d. Buffalo
• New England can clinch a playoff berth IF New England d. Pittsburgh OR Miami d. Buffalo OR Cleveland d. Baltimore

• Minnesota can clinch the NFC North IF Minnesota d. Cincinnati OR BOTH Carolina d. Green Bay AND Chicago d. Detroit
• Minnesota can clinch a playoff berth IF ONE OF
  • Minnesota d. Cincinnati
  • Carolina d. Green Bay AND Chicago d. Detroit
  • Tampa Bay d. Atlanta AND LA Rams d. Seattle AND ONE OF Green Bay d. Carolina OR NY Jets d. New Orleans OR Chicago d. Detroit

• Philadelphia can clinch Home Field Advantage IF Philadelphia d. NY Giants AND Cincinnati d. Minnesota
• Philadelphia can clinch a First-Round Bye IF Philadelphia d. NY Giants
• Philadelphia can clinch a Top-Three Seed IF Philadelphia d. NY Giants OR ALL OF Green Bay d. Carolina AND NY Jets d. New Orleans AND LA Rams d. Seattle AND Tampa Bay d. Atlanta

• LA Rams can clinch a playoff berth IF LA Rams d. Seattle AND NY Jets d. New Orleans AND Tampa Bay d. Atlanta AND Carolina d. Green Bay AND Chicago d. Detroit

 

Scramble Out of Bounds: Week 14 Playoff Scenarios

We have this week’s full elimination and qualifying scenarios here!

The AFC home field advantage race is down to five teams: New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Baltimore.  In all realistic scenarios, it’s a shootout between the Steelers and Patriots down the wire, with the winner of their head-to-head matchup almost certainly taking the crown — in fact, the Jags, Titans and Ravens can all be knocked out of the running officially this week.

The Ravens’ situation is the most interesting.  Because New England and Pittsburgh play one another, one of them is going to get to at least 10.5 wins.  Baltimore thus has to win out to get to 11-5 in order to even have a chance.  They do not, however, need Pittsburgh to lose out.  If the Steelers get a win over (only) New England or Houston, Baltimore will take the AFC North via their divisional record (5-1 to 4-2). However, if the Steelers beat Cleveland, that would tie them at 5-1, and give the Steelers the edge via the common games tiebreaker (9-3 to 8-4).  So, the Ravens need to win out and hope the Steelers don’t beat the Browns — a tough set of requirements, there.

They wouldn’t need the Patriots to lose out, either.  Obviously, they’d need them to finish at 11-5 or lower, but the Ravens win all head-to-head ties with the Patriots at 11-5.  The Patriots only have AFC games left on their schedule, so they’d finish at 8-4 in the conference, compared to Baltimore’s 9-3.

They’d need the AFC South champ to finish 10-6 or worse (thanks to the Week 9 loss in Tennessee and the Week 3 loss in Jacksonville), but Baltimore still remains alive.  For now.

ELIMINATION

• Baltimore can be eliminated from the AFC North IF Pittsburgh d. Baltimore

• Cincinnati can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF ONE OF
  • Chicago d. Cincinnati AND EITHER San Francisco d. Houston OR Jacksonville d. Seattle
  • Tennessee d. Arizona AND Jacksonville d. Seattle
  • Chicago d. Cincinnati AND Baltimore d. Pittsburgh AND EITHER
    • Buffalo d. Indianapolis AND ONE OF NY Jets d. Denver OR Oakland d. Kansas City OR Miami d. New England
    • Oakland d. Kansas City AND NY Jets d. Denver AND Miami d. New England

• Tennessee can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Arizona d. Tennessee AND New England d. Miami AND Seattle d. Jacksonville
• Tennessee can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Arizona d. Tennessee AND New England d. Miami AND Pittsburgh d. Baltimore

• Jacksonville can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Seattle d. Jacksonville AND New England d. Miami AND Pittsburgh d. Baltimore

• Houston can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF San Francisco d. Houston OR Jacksonville d. Seattle
• Houston can be eliminated from the playoffs IF San Francisco d. Houston AND EITHER Baltimore d. Pittsburgh OR BOTH Miami d. New England AND Buffalo d. Indianapolis

• Indianapolis can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Buffalo d. Indianapolis OR Cincinnati d. Chicago OR Miami d. New England OR Baltimore d. Pittsburgh

• Buffalo can be eliminated from the AFC East IF Indianapolis d. Buffalo OR New England d. Miami

• NY Jets can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Denver d. NY Jets AND Tennessee d. Arizona AND EITHER Jacksonville d. Seattle OR BOTH Baltimore d. Pittsburgh AND San Francisco d. Houston

• Miami can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF New England d. Miami AND Tennessee d. Arizona AND EITHER San Francisco d. Houston OR Jacksonville d. Seattle

• Kansas City can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Oakland d. Kansas City OR BOTH New England d. Miami AND Pittsburgh d. Baltimore
• Kansas City can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF Oakland d. Kansas City AND Jacksonville d. Seattle

• LA Chargers can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF EITHER
  • Washington d. LA Chargers
  • Pittsburgh d. Baltimore AND EITHER New England d. Miami OR Indianapolis d. Buffalo
• LA Chargers can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF Washington d. LA Chargers AND Jacksonville d. Seattle

• Oakland can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Kansas City d. Oakland OR BOTH New England d. Miami AND Pittsburgh d. Baltimore
• Oakland can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF Kansas City d. Oakland AND Tennessee d. Arizona AND Jacksonville d. Seattle

• Denver can be eliminated from the playoffs IF NY Jets d. Denver OR Buffalo d. Indianapolis OR Cincinnati d. Chicago OR Miami d. New England OR San Francisco d. Houston OR Baltimore d. Pittsburgh OR BOTH LA Chargers d. Washington AND Oakland and Kansas City DO NOT TIE

• Detroit can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Tampa Bay d. Detroit OR Minnesota d. Carolina OR New Orleans d. Atlanta OR Philadelphia d. LA Rams
• Detroit can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Tampa Bay d. Detroit OR Minnesota d. Carolina OR BOTH New Orleans d. Atlanta AND Philadelphia d. LA Rams
• Detroit can be eliminated from the NFC North IF Tampa Bay d. Detroit OR Minnesota d. Carolina
• Detroit can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Tampa Bay d. Detroit AND Carolina d. Minnesota AND Atlanta d. New Orleans

• Green Bay can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Cleveland d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Carolina OR Philadelphia d. LA Rams OR ALL OF New Orleans d. Atlanta AND NY Giants d. Dallas AND Seattle d. Jacksonville
• Green Bay can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Cleveland d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Carolina OR ALL OF New Orleans d. Atlanta AND Philadelphia d. LA Rams AND Seattle d. Jacksonville
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the NFC North IF Cleveland d. Green Bay OR Minnesota d. Carolina

• Carolina can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Minnesota d. Carolina
• Carolina can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Minnesota d. Carolina AND Philadelphia d. LA Rams

• Atlanta can be eliminated from the NFC South IF New Orleans d. Atlanta

• Tampa Bay can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Detroit d. Tampa Bay OR Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Carolina d. Minnesota OR Dallas d. NY Giants OR Seattle d. Jacksonville
• Tampa Bay can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Detroit d. Tampa Bay AND BOTH:
  • Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Carolina d. Minnesota
  • Dallas d. NY Giants OR Seattle d. Jacksonville

• Dallas can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF NY Giants d. Dallas OR Philadelphia d. LA Rams OR New Orleans d. Atlanta OR Minnesota d. Carolina OR BOTH Tampa Bay d. Detroit AND Cleveland d. Green Bay
• Dallas can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF NY Giants d. Dallas OR Philadelphia d. LA Rams OR New Orleans d. Atlanta
• Dallas can be eliminated from the NFC East IF NY Giants d. Dallas OR Philadelphia d. LA Rams

• Washington can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF EITHER
  • LA Chargers d. Washington AND ONE OF Dallas d. NY Giants OR Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Carolina d. Minnesota OR Seattle d. Jacksonville OR BOTH Detroit d. Tampa Bay AND Green Bay d. Cleveland
  • Atlanta d. New Orleans AND Carolina d. Minnesota
• Washington can be eliminated from the playoffs IF LA Chargers d. Washington AND ONE OF
  • Detroit d. Tampa Bay AND EITHER
    • Green Bay d. Cleveland AND ONE OF Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Dallas d. NY Giants OR Seattle d. Jacksonville
    • Atlanta d. New Orleans AND Carolina d. Minnesota
  • OR BOTH OF
    • Dallas d. NY Giants OR Seattle d. Jacksonville
    • Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Carolina d. Minnesota

• Arizona can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Tennessee d. Arizona OR Seattle d. Jacksonville OR BOTH Atlanta d. New Orleans AND Carolina d. Minnesota
• Arizona can be eliminated from the playoffs IF EITHER
  • Tennessee d. Arizona AND ONE OF Atlanta d. New Orleans OR Carolina d. Minnesota OR BOTH Detroit d. Tampa Bay AND Green Bay d. Cleveland
  • Atlanta d. New Orleans AND Carolina d. Minnesota AND Seattle d. Jacksonville

CLINCHING

• Pittsburgh can clinch a Top-Three Seed IF Pittsburgh d. Baltimore
• Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff berth IF Pittsburgh d. Baltimore OR Indianapolis d. Buffalo

• Jacksonville can clinch a playoff berth IF Jacksonville d. Seattle AND Indianapolis d. Buffalo AND New England d. Miami AND Washington d. LA Chargers AND Denver d. NY Jets AND Oakland and Kansas City DO NOT TIE

• New England can clinch a Top-Three Seed IF New England d. Miami OR BOTH Oakland d. Kansas City AND Indianapolis d. Buffalo
• New England can clinch the AFC East IF New England d. Miami OR Indianapolis d. Buffalo

• Minnesota can clinch the NFC North IF Minnesota d. Carolina OR BOTH Cleveland d. Green Bay AND Tampa Bay d. Detroit

• New Orleans can clinch a playoff berth IF New Orleans d. Atlanta AND ONE OF
  • Minnesota d. Carolina AND EITHER Tampa Bay d. Detroit OR NY Giants d. Dallas
  • Cleveland d. Green Bay AND Tampa Bay d. Detroit

• Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East IF Philadelphia d. LA Rams OR NY Giants d. Dallas

• LA Rams can clinch a playoff berth IF LA Rams d. Philadelphia AND Minnesota d. Carolina AND New Orleans d. Atlanta AND Cleveland d. Green Bay AND Tampa Bay d. Detroit AND NY Giants d. Dallas

Scrambling Out of Bounds: Week 13 Playoff Scenarios (and leftover Eli Manning Goodness)

Welcome from Football Outsiders!  Here are the playoff scenarios we couldn’t justify making Vince edit to finish Scramble.

Denver, in particular, was irritating.  It’s not at all uncommon for one slot for one team to be difficult to calculate in a given week, especially with 80 games left in the season.  But for the Broncos’ division hopes, #5 seed hopes AND elimination hopes, things got annoyingly non-trivial.  The versions posted here and in Scramble are ignoring ties for sanity reasons, which would extend things quite a bit further.  There are 145 different ways Denver can be eliminated from the four seeds they have remaining, and that’s just…crazy at this point in the year.  The AFC is a disaster, did we mention?

That fifth seed scenario, especially, is a doozy; to get eliminated from JUST the fifth and not the sixth, there’s a LOT of tightrope walking there to make sure Denver loses one tiebreaker but not another.  Headache inducing, that one!

ELIMINATION

• Baltimore can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Detroit d. Baltimore AND New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati

• Cincinnati can be eliminated from the AFC North IF Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati

• Houston can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Tennessee d. Houston OR BOTH New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati
• Houston can be eliminated from the AFC South IF Tennessee d. Houston

• Indianapolis can be eliminated from the AFC South IF Jacksonville d. Indianapolis OR Tennessee d. Houston
• Indianapolis can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Jacksonville d. Indianapolis
• Indianapolis can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Jacksonville d. Indianapolis AND EITHER
  • Miami d. Denver AND Buffalo d. New England
  • Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh AND Baltimore d. Detroit

• Buffalo can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati

• NY Jets can be eliminated from the AFC East IF Kansas City d. NY Jets OR New England d. Buffalo

• Miami can be eliminated from the AFC East IF Denver d. Miami OR New England d. Buffalo

• Kansas City can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF NY Jets d. Kansas City AND New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati

• LA Chargers can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Cleveland d. LA Chargers OR Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati OR BOTH New England d. Buffalo AND EITHER Houston d. Tennessee OR NY Jets d. Kansas City
• LA Chargers can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Cleveland d. LA Chargers AND New England d. Buffalo AND ONE OF Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati OR Tennessee d. Houston OR Jacksonville d. Indianapolis

• Oakland can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF NY Giants d. Oakland OR BOTH New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati
• Oakland can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF NY Giants d. Oakland AND New England d. Buffalo AND Pittsburgh d. Cincinnati

• Denver can be eliminated from a Top-Three Seed IF Miami d. Denver OR Tennessee d. Houston
• Denver can be eliminated from the AFC West IF Miami d. Denver AND EITHER
  • TWO OF Kansas City d. NY Jets OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland OR Oakland d. NY Giants
  • Oakland d. NY Giants AND TWO OF Jacksonville d. Indianapolis OR Houston d. Tennessee OR New England d. Buffalo
• Denver can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Miami d. Denver AND ONE OF
  • Buffalo d. New England AND TWO OF Kansas City d. NY Jets OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland OR Oakland d. NY GIants
  • Oakland d. NY Giants AND ONE OF
    • Jacksonville d. Indianapolis AND ONE OF
      • Tennessee d. Houston AND ONE OF New England d. Buffalo OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland OR Kansas City d. NY Jets
      • Houston d. Tennessee AND Buffalo d. New England
    • Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh AND Baltimore d. Detroit AND EITHER Kansas City d. NY Jets OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland
  • Kansas City d. NY Jets AND LA Chargers d. Cleveland AND EITHER
    • Jacksonville d. Indianapolis AND Tennessee d. Houston
    • Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh AND Baltimore d. Detroit
• Denver can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Miami d. Denver AND ONE OF
  • Buffalo d. New England AND TWO OF Kansas City d. NY Jets OR Oakland d. NY Giants OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland AND EITHER
    • Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh AND Baltimore d. Detroit
    • Jacksonville d. Indianapolis AND Tennessee d.Houston
  • Jacksonville d. Indianapolis AND Cincinnati d. Pittsburgh AND Baltimore d. Detroit AND Oakland d. LA Chargers AND EITHER
    • Tennessee d. Houston AND ONE OF Kansas City d. NY Jets OR LA Chargers d. Cleveland OR New England d. Buffalo
    • Houston d. Tennessee AND Buffalo d. New England

• Detroit can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Philadelphia d. Seattle

• Green Bay can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Tampa Bay d. Green Bay OR Philadelphia d. Seattle
• Green Bay can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF Tampa Bay d. Green Bay
• Green Bay can be eliminated from the NFC North IF Tampa Bay d. Green Bay AND Minnesota d. Atlanta

• Chicago can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF San Francisco d. Chicago OR Seattle d. Philadelphia OR Carolina d. New Orleans OR Atlanta d. Minnesota
• Chicago can be eliminated from the playoffs IF San Francisco d. Chicago OR TWO OF Atlanta d. Minnesota OR Carolina d. New Orleans OR Seattle d. Philadelphia

• Tampa Bay can be eliminated from the NFC South IF Green Bay d. Tampa Bay OR Atlanta d. Minnesota OR New Orleans d. Carolina
• Tampa Bay can be eliminated from a Top-Five Seed IF Green Bay d. Tampa Bay AND EITHER Atlanta d. Minnesota OR Carolina d. New Orleans

• Dallas can be eliminated from the NFC East IF Washington d. Dallas OR Philadelphia d. Seattle

• Seattle can be eliminated from Home Field Advantage IF Philadelphia d. Seattle

• Arizona can be eliminated from a First-Round Bye IF LA Rams d. Arizona OR BOTH Minnesota d. Atlanta AND Baltimore d. Detroit
• Arizona can be eliminated from the NFC West IF LA Rams d. Arizona

 

CLINCHING

• Philadelphia can clinch the NFC East IF Philadelphia d. Seattle OR Washington d. Dallas

 

Manning Stuff

We didn’t include the entire list of quarterbacks involved in the last 100 losses for each team, because that would have taken up way too much space for Football Outsiders.  Here it is, though, in all it’s unedited glory:

Last 100 Losses
Team	Year	QBs	Leaders	(Others)	Earliest Loss	QB/Year
NYG	2004	1	Eli Manning (100)		Manning	0.071
LACH	2003	3	Phillip Rivers (85), Drew Brees (13), Doug Flutie (2)		Flutie	0.200
NE	1995	5	Tom Brady (54), Drew Bledsoe (39), Matt Cassel (5)	Jacoby Brissett (1), Scott Zolak (1)	Bledsoe	0.217
NO	2003	5	Drew Brees (76), Aaron Brooks (19), Todd Bouman (3)	Luke McCown (1), Mark Brunell (1)	Brooks	0.333
GB	2000	6	Aaron Rodgers (47), Brett Favre (44), Brett Hundley (4)	Matt Flynn (3), Scott Tolzein (1), Seneca Wallace (1)	Favre	0.333
CIN	2004	5	Carson Palmer (50), Andy Dalton (41), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7)	A.J. McCarron (1), Jon Kitna (1)	Palmer	0.357
SEA	2002	6	Matt Hasselbeck (53), Russell Wilson (27), Seneca Wallace (9)	Tarvaris Jackson (7), Charlie Whitehurst (3), Charlie Frye (1)	Hasselbeck	0.375
IND	2000	8	Peyton Manning (47), Andrew Luck (27), Curtis Painter (8)	Jacoby Brissett (7), Matt Hasselbeck (3), Dan Orlovsky (3), Kerry Collins (3), Scott Tolzien (2)	Manning	0.444
ATL	2003	7	Matt Ryan (61), Michael Vick (21), Joey Harrington (7)	Chris Redman (5), Byron Leftwich (2), Matt Schaub (2), Doug Johnson (2)	Johnson	0.467
PIT	1999	10	Ben Roethlisberger (62), Tommy Maddox (16), Kordell Stewart (9)	Charlie Batch (3), Kent Graham (3), Landry Jones (2), Mike Tomczak (2), Michael Vick (1), Byron Leftwich (1), Dennis Dixon (1)	Tomczak	0.526
BAL	2003	8	Joe Flacco (60), Kyle Boller (21), Steve McNair (7)	Anthony Wright (7), Jimmy Clausen (2), Ryan Mallett (1), Matt Schaub (1), Troy Smith (1)	Boller	0.533
DET	2007	6	Matthew Stafford (63), Jon Kitna (11), Daunte Culpepper (10)	Shaun Hill (7), Dan Orlovsky (7), Drew Stanton (2)	Kitna	0.545
WAS	2006	7	Jason Campbell (28), Kirk Cousins (27), Robert Griffin (21)	Rex Grossman (10), Donovan McNabb (8), Colt McCoy (3), John Beck (3)	Campbell	0.583
CAR	2004	9	Cam Newton (43), Jake Delhomme (30), Jimmy Clausen (9)	Matt Moore (6), Vinny Testaverde (4), David Carr (3), Chris Weinke (2), Derek Anerson (2), Brian St. Pierre (1)	Delhomme	0.643
DAL	2003	10	Tony Romo (49), Drew Bledsoe (20), Dak Prescott (9)	Matt Cassel (6), Jon Kitna (5), Brandon Weeden (4), Quincy Carter (2), Brad Johnson (2), Kellen Moore (2), Kyle Orton (1)	Carter	0.667
JAC	2008	7	Blake Bortles (38), Blaine Gabbert (22), David Garrard (20)	Chad Henne (17), Luke McCown (1), Trent Edwards (1), Todd Bouman (1)	Garrard	0.700
PHI	2002	12	Donovan McNabb (32), Michael Vick (20), Carson Wentz (10)	Nick Foles (9), Sam Bradford (7), Mark Sanchez (6), Mike McMahon (5), Kevin Kolb (4), A.J. Feeley (3), Vince Young (2), Jeff Garcia (1), Koy Detmer (1)	Feeley	0.750
KC	2005	10	Matt Cassel (27), Alex Smith (25), Damon Huard (11)	Brodie Croyle (10), Tyler Thigpen (10), Brady Quinn (7), Trent Green (5), Tyler Palko (3), Chase Daniel (1), Kyle Orton (1)	Green	0.769
DEN	2002	13	Kyle Orton (21), Jay Cutler (20), Jake Plummer (15)	Peyton Manning (12), Trevor Siemian (10), Tim Tebow (6), Brock Osweiler (5), Steve Beuerelein (3), Paxton Lynch (2), Danny Kanell (2), Brian Griese (2), Chris Simms (1), Jarious Jackson (1)	Beuerlein	0.813
MIA	2006	10	Ryan Tannehill (40), Chad Henne (19), Matt Moore (9)	Chad Pennington (9), Cleo Lemon (7), Jay Cutler (5), Trent Green (5), John Beck (4), Joey Harrington (2), Tyler Thigpen (1)	Harrington	0.833
BUF	2006	10	Ryan Fitzpatrick (33), Tyrod Taylor (18), Trent Edwards (18)	EJ Manuel (11), J.P. Losman (8), Kyle Orton (5), Thaddeus Lewis (3), Brian Brohm (2), Nathan Peterman (1), Jeff Tuel (1)	Losman	0.833
SF	2006	10	Colin Kaepernick (30), Alex Smith (30), Blaine Gabbert (9)	Brian Hoyer (6), Shaun Hill (6), J.T. O’Sullivan (6), Trent Dilfer (5), C.J. Beathard (4), Troy Smith (3), Chris Weinke (1)	Smith	0.833
HOU	2005	11	Matt Schaub (42), David Carr (15), Case Keenum (8)	Brock Osweiler (6), Ryan Fitzpatrick (6), Tom Savage (5), Brian Hoyer (4), Ryan Mallett (4), Sage Rosenfels (4), Deshaun Watson (3), T.J. Yates (3)	Carr	0.846
NYJ	2005	11	Mark Sanchez (29), Geno Smith (18), Ryan Fitzpatrick (14)	Chad Pennington (13), Josh McCown (7), Brett Favre (7), Kellen Clemens (5), Bryce Petty (3), Michael Vick (2), Greg McElroy (1), Brooks Bollinger (1)	Bollinger	0.846
TEN	2005	11	Marcus Mariota (19), Kerry Collins (17), Vince Young (17)	Jake Locker (14), Zach Mettenberger (10), Matt Hasselbeck (10), Ryan Fitzpatrick (6), Charlie Whitehurst (4), Matt Cassel (1), Rusty Smith (1), Matt Mauck (1)	Mauck	0.846
TB	2007	10	Josh Freeman (35), Jameis Winston (23), Mike Glennon (13)	Josh McCown (10), Jeff Garcia (6), Josh Johnson (5), Byron Leftwich (3), Luke McCown (2), Brian Griese (2), Ryan Fitzpatrick (1)	McCown	0.909
CHI	2005	12	Jay Cutler (51), Kyle Orton (10), Rex Grossman (9)	Mitch Trubisky (5), Matt Barkley (5), Brian Hoyer (4), Caleb Hanie (4), Mike Glennon (3), Josh McCown (3), Brian Griese (3), Jimmy Clausen (2), Jason Campbell (1)	Orton	0.923
ARI	2005	12	Kurt Warner (29), Carson Palmer (21), Matt Leinart (10)	John Skelton (9), Kevin Kolb (8), Derek Anderson (7), Ryan Lindley (5), Drew Stanton (4), Josh McCown (3), Max Hall (2), Blaine Gabbert (1), Brian Hoyer (1)	Warner	0.923
MIN	2004	15	Christian Ponder (21), Brett Favre (12), Teddy Bridgewater (11)	Tarvaris Jackson (10), Brad Johnson (10), Sam Bradford (8), Daunte Culpepper (7), Matt Cassel (5), Donovan McNabb (5), Gus Frerotte (3), Kelly Holcomb (3), Case Keenum (2), Josh Freeman (1), Joe Webb (1), Brooks Bollinger (1)	Culpepper	1.071
LARM	2008	12	Sam Bradford (30), Marc Bulger (17), Jared Goff (10)	Kellen Clemens (8), Case Keenum (7), Nick Foles (7), Austin Davis (5), Shaun Hill (5), Kyle Boller (4), Keith Null (4), A.J. Feeley (2), Trent Green (1)	Green	1.200
OAK	2007	14	Derek Carr (30), JaMarcus Russell (18), Carson Palmer (16)	Terrelle Pryor (7), Jason Campbell (7), Matt McGloin (6), Bruce Gradkowski (5), Josh McCown (4), Charlie Frye (2), EJ Manuel (1), Matt Flynn (1), Kyle Boller (1), Andrew Walter (1), Daunte Culpepper (1)	McCown	1.273
CLE	2009	17	Brandon Weeden (15), Colt McCoy (15), DeShone Kizer (10)	Josh McCown (10), Cody Kessler (8), Jason Campbell (7), Johnny Manzeil (6), Brian Hoyer (6), Seneca Wallace (6), Robert Griffin (4), Brady Quinn (4), Austin Davis (2), Jake Delhomme (2), Derek Anderson (2), Kevin Hogan (1), Connor Shaw (1), Thaddeus Lewis (1)	Anderson	1.889